20 Races To Rule The House

All The States Are Gray . . . California Dreamin

For reasons only the election denying whackadoodles can explain to themselves, they are focused on races in Arizona and Nevada. They claim the time it takes to count the votes there suggests fraud as unknown conspiratorial forces in those states (run by Republicans) use the additional time to “find” the votes Democrats need. They ignore other states taking just as long.

The House has 435 seats. As I write this CNN has called the election in 415 with Republicans leading 211 to 204. Getting to 218 controls the House.

While election deniers focus on Arizona and Nevada, the unresolved seats spread across New York, Maine, Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, California, and Arizona. You hear almost nothing about those other states. This article will briefly walk through each of those 20 remaining contests to see where they are.

Contests Where Republicans Lead

New York District 22: Republican Brandon Williams leads Democrat Francis Canole 50.7% to 49.2% with about 94% reporting. The District went 55% to Trump in the last election. However, in the last House election the Republican incumbent’s victory was so small it was contested all the way to the state Supreme Court.

Colorado District 3: In a surprisingly close race for Lauren Boebert’s supposedly safe Republican District, Boebert has had to come from behind to take 50.2% to 49.8% lead over Democrat Adam Frisch. That amounts to only about 1,100 votes, though with about 99% reporting it appears the whackadoodle married to a convicted child sex offender will hold her seat.

Arizona District 6: Republican Juan Ciscomani leads Democrat Kristen Engel 50.2% to 49.8%, amounting to about 1,400 votes, with 91% reporting. This District has been safely Republican since 1995. Votes still coming in from Pima County keep this district in doubt. UPDATE: This race has now been called in favor of Republican Juan Ciscomani.

Oregon District 5: This Portland suburb district has customarily been Democrat, Biden won by 10%, but Republican Chavez-DeRemer leads Democrat McLeod-Skinner by 51.1% to 48.8% (7,200 votes) with 93% reporting. Republicans may flip this district though the counties still needing to report the most votes seem to favor the Democrat. UPDATE: This race has now been called for Republican Chavez-DeRemer.

California District 3: Republican Kevin Kiley leads Democrat Kermit Jones by 53% to 47% but with only about half the votes counted for a seat Democrats have held since 2013.

California District 45: Republican Michelle Steel leads Democrat Jay Chen 53.7% to 46.3%, in Katie Porter’s (see Democrat leads below) former district before redistricting, with 70% of the vote reporting. Steel leads by over 12,000 with 63% reporting. Steel is a strong conservative and Trump supporter.

California District 41: Republican Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by a narrow 1.4%, totaling 2,100 votes, with only 53% reporting. This is a strong democratic area, and I suspect Calvert will ultimately lose to Rollins.

California District 27: Republican incumbent Mike Garcia leads Democrat Christy Smith by 55.4% to 44.6% with 53% reporting. Despite his 15,000 vote lead this district remains in doubt because, like the other uncalled California districts, much of the remaining vote to be counted is mail in that tends to strongly favor democrats.

California District 22: Republican incumbent David Valadao leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5% but with only 39% of the vote recorded. Valadao is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, and one of only two who survived their primary. If the district’s Republicans fail to support Valadao this would be a flip for the Democrats.

California District 13: Republican John Duarte is in a virtual dead heat, leading Democrat Adam Gray, by only 80 votes with less than half the district’s votes counted. The district is strongly Democratic and I expect Gray will end up beating Duarte fairly easily once the later votes are counted.

Contests Where Democrats Lead

Maine District 2: Democrat Jerod Golden leads 49.2% to 43.9%, about 15,000 votes, over Republican Bruce Poliquin with about 88% reporting. Entire small towns in the state remain completely unreported.

Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltoa enjoys a massive 47.3% lead over Trump endorsed Sarah Palin’s 26.6% with 72% reporting. So why hasn’t this been called? Because Republican Nick Begich has 24.2%. Under Alaska’s rank order voting system, if almost all of Begich’s second choice votes go to Palin, she could win.

New Mexico District 2: Democrat Gabe Vasquez leads with 50.3% over Republican incumbent Yvette Harrell with 49.7%, by a total of about 1,300 votes with 99% reporting. A Vasquez victory here would flip a seat in a district Trump won by 12 points in 2020. While CNN has not yet called the race, Harrell has conceded. UPDATE: This race has now been called for Democrat Gabe Vasquez.

Colorado District 8: Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads 48.4% to 47.7% over Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer. The 1,700 vote lead is with 97% of the vote counted. Kirkmeyer likely still has votes to add in Weld County, but mail in ballots remain to be counted that could favor Caraveo.

Arizona District 1: Democrat Devin Hodge leads Republican incumbent David Schweikert 50.4% to 49.6% by about 2,500 votes. A small portion of late counting Maricopa County is in this district. If Hodge holds it would be a Democrat flip. UPDATE: This race has now been called for Republican David Schweikert who passed Hodge as late returns came in.

Oregon District 6: Democrat Andrea Salina leads Republican Mike Erickson 49.8% to 47.9% in this newly created district with only about 80% of the vote counted. A county by county review of where votes remain suggests this one is wide open.

California District 49: Democratic incumbent Mike Levin leads Republican Brian Maryott 52.3% to 47.7%, by nearly 11,000 votes with 75% reporting. I expect the Democrat to hold this seat.

California District 47: Democratic incumbent Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh 51.3% to 48.7%. The 5,300 vote lead is with about 72% counted. The district has been Democrat since 2003 but recent redistricting has made it less predictable.

California House District 21: Democratic incumbent Jim Costa leads by about 10%, with 75% of the vote counted, over Republican Michael Maher. I’m not sure why this one hasn’t been called yet, and expect it will be soon.

California House District 9: Democratic incumbent Josh Harder enjoys a 12 point lead, amounting to about 10,000 votes, over Republican Tom Patti. This is a strongly Democratic area that Biden carried by 18%. I expect Harder to win easy and I believe it has not yet been called because only a little more than a third of the votes have been counted.

Thoughts

The 20 uncalled House seats split evenly 10 to 10 between the parties in terms who is leading at this time. If all those held as they are the Republicans would take the house 221–214. I don’t expect that to happen.

Fully half of the uncalled seats are in California in districts where a whole lot of votes still have to be counted. Many of these are mail in ballots that are likely to strongly favor the Democratic candidates in these close elections. The Republicans lead 6–4 in the ten uncalled California districts, I do not expect that hold. I expect the bulk of uncalled races in California to go to the Democrats. What that ratio ends up being could well decide who wins the House.

For the Democrats to hold the House they would have to go 14–6 in the remaining uncalled elections. That’s going to be very tough to do, but it is not out of the question.

UPDATES

With the above noted calls for Republicans in Oregon District 5 and Arizona District 1, and a Democrat in New Mexico District 2, the list of uncalled states is now 17. To hold the House Democrats need to win 13 of them. To take the House Republicans need to take five of the 18.

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Keith

Retired lawyer & Army vet in The Villages of Florida. Lifelong: Republican (pre-Trump), Constitution buff, science nerd & dog lover. Twitter: @KeithDB80