Four Easy To Understand Coronavirus Graphs: Where We Are And Where We Might Be Going.
Yesterday new U.S. cases increased by an again record amount of 18,850 to break the 100,000 mark with almost 105,000 total cases. The USA remains #1 in total cases and the only nation with over 100,000. We will continue to expand the gap between us and the next nearest nation (currently Italy).
For the record, the reason I confine these graphs to just the last ten days is because the left side values get so small, so quick, compared to the end of the graph, that they become impossible to see.
Next the new deaths by day.
After a day of holding steady, daily deaths mushroomed yesterday from around 250 to over 400. That’s almost approaching Italy level daily numbers. The total deaths in the United States is now 1,715. Heres’ the thing about that though. 1358 of those, or nearly 80% of them, have been in just the last six days.
That fatality rate which which had previously bottomed out at 1.3% continues to inch upward and is now 1.6%. That means that 1.6% of those confirmed to have Coronavirus die. For the record, that’s about 15 times higher than the regular flu.
The final graph is interesting, I think, but a bit difficult to explain. I call it the “Ten Day Multiplier” graph. What you see on that graph is how many times higher the total cases were on that day than was the case ten days before. For example, on 27 March, yesterday, we had 104,848 cases. That is 17.2 times the 6,105 cases just ten days before on March 17th. That’s how the graph works for all the dates shown. For example, the total cases on March 21 was 20.7 times higher than the total cases on March 11th, and so on.
Obviously the higher that number the worse. The graph shows the numbers increasing from about 13 to a peak at about 20.5, and then a gradual decline to the most recent 17.2. If we used the most recent number, and multiplied current cases by 17 we would get an estimate of about 1.8 million cases in ten more days, that’ just a week from Monday folks. The question is whether that current 17X multiplier is really trending down. We’ll find out. I certainly hope so.
If we assume 1.8 million cases and a death rate of 1.5% then the next ten days, a week from Monday, will see the number of deaths rise to a total of about 27,000 and we will still be far from being done.
Thing is, even if we assume that ten day multiplier falls from its current levels, and falls a lot, the figures remain scary. If we assume the multiplier falls to 10, lower than it has ever been, that would still be over 1 million cases and some 15,000 deaths just a week from Monday.