Quote: “5) Why are you downplaying, as Dr. Birx did last week when asked about the California studies, the importance of doing nationwide random sample serological testing to determine a more accurate denominator and death rate? This will allow us to make more scientific data-driven decisions about the actual hospital capacity needs and how quickly the restrictions can be lifted.”

I’ll take this one for you. Dr. Birx downplayed it because she knows the study was fundamentally flawed. It was basically complete garbage, and here is why.

The study sampled 3,300 people and 50 tested positive, or 1.5%. That 1.5% was extrapolated to the entire population to get the much higher infection rates the media touted in the story.

Here’s the problem. The test used has an identified false positive rate of as much as 1.7%. Thus, in a sampling of 3,300 you would expect as many of 56 of them to test positive as false positives. Accordingly, absolutely every positive in this test can be explained as a potential false positive. The study literally does not have a single verified positive result.

Dr. Birx was correct to downplay the test. It was hopelessly flawed and provides no evidence of anything.

Written by

Retired lawyer & Army vet in The Villages of Florida. Lifelong: Republican (pre-Trump), Constitution buff, science nerd & dog lover. Twitter: @KeithDB80

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