I have no special powers of prescience but these are my fearless guesses for headlines we might expect to see over the next month.
Representative Matt Gaetz Arrested: I put the boldest prediction first. My wife snarkily points out that I predicted this last July. This is true, but I am confident enough to put it up for the first time since then. It was June 2020 that Matt Gaetz “wingman” Joel Greenberg was charged with sex trafficking and financial crimes. In May 2021 Greenberg struck a deal where he pled guilty to many of the charges, and admitted to having sex with an underage girl and witnessing “other adult men” do the same. Since then Greenberg’s sentencing has been the subject of multiple exceptional delays as he is cooperating fully with prosecutors who acknowledge his very helpful assistance has sent them down unexpected paths. The judge reluctantly granted the most recent extension, saying it was in the interest of justice, but also stating that any extensions beyond August would have to be justified by something truly exceptional. Whatever this is it has to be big. I think the long investigation will come to end with the arrest of Gaetz in July or early August for sex trafficking and likely financial fraud related crimes. I believe the investigation will also net others, though I can’t say who.
Dobbs’ Casualties Matter: Headlines over coming months will include the first of two kinds of casualties from the Dobbs decision reversing Roe. The first will be women harmed, perhaps killed, while getting illegal abortions. The second will be doctors, and perhaps women, criminally prosecuted for now illegal abortions.
Republicans Rue Roe Reversal: The fallout from the above will cause many, of the dwindling supply of sensible Republicans, to rue Roe’s reversal. Roe provided them a cause to campaign on that fired up their base but its reversal is unpopular with the American people in general. Republicans have lost a cause to rally around, and must now deal with the backlash from a much larger number of Americans. Abortion prosecutions will set off new waves of protests, and women harmed by illegal abortions will become martyrs Republicans don’t want to talk about. Cases of young girls unable to procure abortions, who have been victimized by rape or incest, will also get great attention to the discomfort of many Republicans.
Supreme Court Leaker Revealed: Justice Alito’s draft of the Dobbs decision reversing Roe was leaked weeks ago and we still have not heard who did it. Frankly, I am surprised it has taken this long to find the culprit, and I believe it likely whoever it is will be outed in the next few weeks.
James Webb Space Telescope Pictures: The final tweaking of the JWST is being completed. Over the next few weeks the first of what will be many spectacular images and discoveries will begin to come from this revolutionary space telescope.
J6 Committee Hearings: In mid-July the January 6 Committee hearings will reconvene after a brief hold for the July 4th recess. A surprise hearing at the end of June featured shocking testimony on many fronts, but much more is coming. Committee members have teased the public with promises to link Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, charged with sedition, to persons deep in the Trump circle. Multiple witnesses will say that Trump enjoyed the attack on the Capitol and said that the mob’s seeking to hang his Vice President was giving him what he deserved. The Committee concluded the last hearing teasing evidence of witness tampering. I came close to predicting a high profile arrest for July with the most likely candidates being two individuals already targeted by search warrants, Rudy Giuliani and Jeff Clark. I still believe they will be arrested, but I am not sure that it will be in the next four weeks, though it could be. The DOJ is arguably running out of time in a way that further delay will push any arrests until after the November midterm elections. Policy disfavors arrests that could impact elections starting 60–90 days before elections.
Trump And Family Testify To NYAG: Having exhausted legal appeals, in mid-July Trump and his family will finally have to testify in the New York Attorney General’s civil investigation of them, and the Trump Organization, for fraud. They will have every right to invoke their 5th Amendment privilege, and I believe they will. If they do, the former President of the United States will be seen pleading the 5th. In a criminal case that could not be used against him, but in this civil investigation it can.
